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Refining Market Size, Share and Forecast 2026-2036

The global refining market is worth USD 2.9 tn in 2026 and is forecast to reach USD 3.2 tn by 2036, growing at a 1.0% CAGR. United States is the largest country market and Diesel and gasoil is the largest by product segment.

USD 2.9 tnMarket size 2026
USD 3.2 tnForecast 2036
1.0%CAGR 2026-2036
United StatesLargest country

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5 segmentation views25 countries2026 to 2036 yearly forecast

Market overview

The global refining market is worth USD 2.9 tn in 2026 and is forecast to reach USD 3.2 tn by 2036, growing at a 1.0% CAGR. United States is the largest country market and Diesel and gasoil is the largest by product segment.

ScopeNet sales value of refined petroleum products from the world's refineries: gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, fuel oil, LPG, naphtha, asphalt and lubricant bases.
IndustryOil and Gas
Value 2025USD 2.9 tn
Value 2026USD 2.9 tn
Value 2036USD 3.2 tn
CAGR 2026-20361.0%
Volume 202630,060 million barrels
Volume 203630,661 million barrels
Average price 2026USD 97.4 per barrel
Report priceStarts from USD 1,999
PublishedNovember 2026

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Refining market size and forecast, 2026-2036

Exhibit 1The global refining market is forecast to grow from USD 2.9 tn in 2026 to USD 3.2 tn by 2036, a rise of 10%Global market value in USD: 2025 base year, 2026 estimate and forecast to 2036. CAGR 2026 to 2036: 1.0%
Refining market value, 2025 to 2036Market value by year. 2025: USD 2,900 bn; 2026: USD 2,929 bn; 2027: USD 2,958 bn; 2028: USD 2,988 bn; 2029: USD 3,018 bn; 2030: USD 3,048 bn; 2031: USD 3,078 bn; 2032: USD 3,109 bn; 2033: USD 3,140 bn; 2034: USD 3,172 bn; 2035: USD 3,203 bn; 2036: USD 3,235 bn. Compound annual growth rate 2026 to 2036: 1.0%.20252,929 bn20263,078 bn20313,235 bn20361.0% CAGR

Source: Compare Market Research analysis.
© 2026 Compare Market Research. All rights reserved.

YearMarket value
2026USD 2,929 bn
2027USD 2,958 bn
2028USD 2,988 bn
2029USD 3,018 bn
2030USD 3,048 bn
2031USD 3,078 bn
2032USD 3,109 bn
2033USD 3,140 bn
2034USD 3,172 bn
2035USD 3,203 bn
2036USD 3,235 bn

Refining market segmentation

By product

Exhibit 2Diesel and gasoil is the largest segment by product, with 33.0% of 2026 revenueEstimated share of 2026 global revenue, by product
Refining market share by product, 2026Share of 2026 revenue by product. Diesel and gasoil: 33.0%; Gasoline: 30.0%; LPG, naphtha and petrochemical feed: 12.0%; Asphalt, coke and others: 10.0%; Jet fuel and kerosene: 8.0%; Fuel oil and bunkers: 7.0%.Diesel and gasoil33.0%Gasoline30.0%LPG, naphtha and petrochemical feed12.0%Asphalt, coke and others10.0%Jet fuel and kerosene8.0%Fuel oil and bunkers7.0%

Source: Compare Market Research analysis.
© 2026 Compare Market Research. All rights reserved.

SegmentShare 2026Share 2036Value 2026CAGR 2026-36
Diesel and gasoil33.0%32.9%USD 967 bn1.0%
Gasoline30.0%28.7%USD 879 bn0.6%
Jet fuel and kerosene8.0%9.2%USD 234 bn2.5%
Fuel oil and bunkers7.0%6.0%USD 205 bn-0.5%
LPG, naphtha and petrochemical feed12.0%13.2%USD 351 bn2.0%
Asphalt, coke and others10.0%10.0%USD 293 bn1.0%

By refinery complexity

Exhibit 3Deep conversion (coking) adds the most revenue by refinery complexity, growing from USD 879 bn in 2026 to USD 1.0 tn by 2036Estimated revenue in USD by refinery complexity, 2026 and 2036 forecast
Refining market by refinery complexity, 2026 and 2036Revenue by refinery complexity in 2026 and 2036. Conversion (cracking): USD 1.7 tn in 2026, USD 1.9 tn in 2036, change +10%; Deep conversion (coking): USD 879 bn in 2026, USD 1.0 tn in 2036, change +19%; Hydroskimming and topping: USD 351 bn in 2026, USD 332 bn in 2036, change −6%.20262036 forecastChangeConversion (cracking)+10%1.7 tn1.9 tnDeep conversion (coking)+19%879 bn1.0 tnHydroskimming and topping−6%351 bn332 bn

Source: Compare Market Research analysis.
© 2026 Compare Market Research. All rights reserved.

SegmentShare 2026Share 2036Value 2026CAGR 2026-36
Hydroskimming and topping12.0%10.3%USD 351 bn-0.6%
Conversion (cracking)58.0%57.5%USD 1.7 tn0.9%
Deep conversion (coking)30.0%32.2%USD 879 bn1.7%

By end use

SegmentShare 2026Share 2036Value 2026CAGR 2026-36
Road transport52.0%46.1%USD 1.5 tn-0.2%
Aviation and marine16.0%19.2%USD 469 bn2.9%
Petrochemicals and industry20.0%24.0%USD 586 bn2.9%
Heating and power12.0%10.7%USD 351 bn-0.1%

By sulphur grade

SegmentShare 2026Share 2036Value 2026CAGR 2026-36
Ultra-low sulphur58.0%62.8%USD 1.7 tn1.8%
Low sulphur26.0%24.3%USD 762 bn0.3%
High sulphur16.0%12.9%USD 469 bn-1.1%

By refinery owner

SegmentShare 2026Share 2036Value 2026CAGR 2026-36
National oil companies42.0%48.0%USD 1.2 tn2.4%
Integrated majors36.0%30.4%USD 1.1 tn-0.7%
Independent refiners22.0%21.6%USD 644 bn0.8%

Top 25 countries for refining by revenue

Countries are ranked by revenue earned from sales in the country, not by where the product is made. The ten largest hold 62.5% of 2026 revenue and the 25 countries below together hold 90.2%.

Exhibit 4United States is the largest country market at USD 586 bn in 2026, and the three largest countries hold 41.0% of global revenueEstimated 2026 revenue in USD and share of the global market, ten largest countries
Refining market, ten largest countries in 2026Ten largest countries by 2026 revenue. United States: USD 586 bn, 20.0%; China: USD 439 bn, 15.0%; India: USD 176 bn, 6.0%; Japan: USD 117 bn, 4.0%; Russia: USD 103 bn, 3.5%; Brazil: USD 93.7 bn, 3.2%; Saudi Arabia: USD 87.9 bn, 3.0%; South Korea: USD 82.0 bn, 2.8%; Germany: USD 73.2 bn, 2.5%; Canada: USD 73.2 bn, 2.5%.United States586 bn 20.0%China439 bn 15.0%India176 bn 6.0%Japan117 bn 4.0%Russia103 bn 3.5%Brazil93.7 bn 3.2%Saudi Arabia87.9 bn 3.0%South Korea82.0 bn 2.8%Germany73.2 bn 2.5%Canada73.2 bn 2.5%

Source: Compare Market Research analysis.
© 2026 Compare Market Research. All rights reserved.

#CountryValue 2026Share 2026Value 2036CAGR 2026-36
1United StatesUSD 586 bn20.0%USD 618 bn0.5%
2ChinaUSD 439 bn15.0%USD 508 bn1.5%
3IndiaUSD 176 bn6.0%USD 246 bn3.4%
4JapanUSD 117 bn4.0%USD 110 bn-0.6%
5RussiaUSD 103 bn3.5%USD 107 bn0.4%
6BrazilUSD 93.7 bn3.2%USD 107 bn1.3%
7Saudi ArabiaUSD 87.9 bn3.0%USD 100 bn1.3%
8South KoreaUSD 82.0 bn2.8%USD 84.1 bn0.2%
9GermanyUSD 73.2 bn2.5%USD 67.9 bn-0.8%
10CanadaUSD 73.2 bn2.5%USD 77.7 bn0.6%
11IranUSD 70.9 bn2.4%USD 150 bn7.8%
12ItalyUSD 70.9 bn2.4%USD 103 bn3.8%
13FranceUSD 70.9 bn2.4%USD 82.2 bn1.5%
14MexicoUSD 70.9 bn2.4%USD 69.9 bn-0.1%
15United KingdomUSD 67.1 bn2.3%USD 61.8 bn-0.8%
16SpainUSD 60.6 bn2.1%USD 56.0 bn-0.8%
17NetherlandsUSD 55.7 bn1.9%USD 51.4 bn-0.8%
18SingaporeUSD 51.8 bn1.8%USD 47.9 bn-0.8%
19KuwaitUSD 48.6 bn1.7%USD 45.0 bn-0.8%
20United Arab EmiratesUSD 45.7 bn1.6%USD 42.4 bn-0.8%
21TurkeyUSD 43.3 bn1.5%USD 40.1 bn-0.8%
22ThailandUSD 41.3 bn1.4%USD 38.2 bn-0.8%
23IndonesiaUSD 39.5 bn1.4%USD 36.6 bn-0.8%
24TaiwanUSD 38.1 bn1.3%USD 35.3 bn-0.8%
25BelgiumUSD 36.6 bn1.2%USD 34.0 bn-0.8%
Rest of worldUSD 286 bn9.8%USD 317 bn1.0%
Exhibit 5Iran and India account for 49% of the USD 306 bn the market is forecast to add by 2036Forecast revenue added between 2026 and 2036 by country, in USD
Refining market, where the growth to 2036 comes fromRevenue added between 2026 and 2036. Market value 2026: USD 2.9 tn. Iran: +USD 79.2 bn; India: +USD 70.2 bn; China: +USD 68.6 bn; United States: +USD 32.2 bn; Italy: +USD 31.7 bn; 20 other countries: −USD 5.7 bn; Rest of world: +USD 30.3 bn. Market value 2036: USD 3.2 tn.Iran+79.2 bnIndia+70.2 bnChina+68.6 bnUnited States+32.2 bnItaly+31.7 bn20 other countries−5.7 bnRest of world+30.3 bn

Source: Compare Market Research analysis.
© 2026 Compare Market Research. All rights reserved.

Competitive landscape

Group 1: Global leaders

  • Sinopec
  • ExxonMobil
  • Saudi Aramco
  • Shell
  • Chevron
  • TotalEnergies

Group 2: Regional and specialist players

  • Marathon Petroleum
  • Valero Energy
  • Phillips 66
  • Reliance Industries
  • Indian Oil Corporation
  • SK Innovation
  • ENEOS Holdings
  • Idemitsu Kosan
  • PBF Energy
  • HF Sinclair

Group 3: Emerging and niche players

  • Nayara Energy
  • Par Pacific
  • Delek US
  • CVR Energy
  • Dangote Refinery

Research methodology

Every figure on this page comes from the research framework that we apply to all of the markets we cover. The 2025 base for the refining market is built from the volume sold and the price that buyers pay, and is cross-checked against the size of the wider industry the market belongs to. Where a market can be sized in more than one way, the routes are compared before a figure is set.

The forecast runs year by year from the 2025 base to 2036. Growth in each year reflects demand from the industries that buy the product, adoption of new technology, pricing, regulation and replacement cycles. Volume and price are modelled together, so revenue in each year equals volume multiplied by average price. The 2026 to 2036 compound annual growth rate of 1.0% is calculated from the resulting values.

The market is divided by product, by refinery complexity, by end use, by sulphur grade, by refinery owner. The 25 largest countries are ranked by revenue earned from sales to buyers in each country, not by where the product is made. Segment values and country values add up to the market total in every year, and every report is checked for consistency before it is published.

Companies are placed in three groups: global leaders, regional and specialist players, and emerging and niche players. The groups describe how companies compete in the market. They are not a ranking and they are not market shares.

Our analysts also carry out primary research. Customized reports add interviews with key opinion leaders, such as senior executives, technical specialists and buyers, to test the assumptions behind the numbers for the question being asked.

Read the full research methodology

Frequently asked questions

How big is the refining market?

The global refining market is estimated at USD 2.9 tn in 2025 and USD 2.9 tn in 2026.

How fast will the refining market grow?

It is forecast to reach USD 3.2 tn by 2036, a compound annual growth rate of 1.0% from 2026, an increase of USD 306 bn.

Which country is the largest market for refining?

United States is the largest market by revenue at USD 586 bn in 2026, 20.0% of the global total. The three largest countries together hold 41.0%.

Which country is growing fastest?

Among the ten largest markets, India is growing fastest at 3.4% a year from 2026 to 2036.

Which refining segment is largest?

In the by product split, Diesel and gasoil is the largest segment with 33.0% of 2026 revenue.

Who are the leading refining companies?

Global leaders include Sinopec, ExxonMobil, Saudi Aramco, Shell.

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