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Downstream Oil and Gas Market Size, Share and Forecast 2026-2036

The global downstream oil and gas market is worth USD 2.6 tn in 2026 and is forecast to reach USD 3.0 tn by 2036, growing at a 1.5% CAGR. United States is the largest country market and Diesel and gasoil is the largest by product segment.

USD 2.6 tnMarket size 2026
USD 3.0 tnForecast 2036
1.5%CAGR 2026-2036
United StatesLargest country

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5 segmentation views25 countries2026 to 2036 yearly forecast

Market overview

The global downstream oil and gas market is worth USD 2.6 tn in 2026 and is forecast to reach USD 3.0 tn by 2036, growing at a 1.5% CAGR. United States is the largest country market and Diesel and gasoil is the largest by product segment.

ScopeRefining and marketing of crude oil: value of refined products such as gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, fuel oil and liquefied petroleum gas sold from refineries at wholesale prices.
IndustryOil and Gas
Value 2025USD 2.6 tn
Value 2026USD 2.6 tn
Value 2036USD 3.0 tn
CAGR 2026-20361.5%
Volume 202630,149 million barrels
Volume 203633,287 million barrels
Average price 2026USD 87.1 per barrel
Report priceStarts from USD 1,999
PublishedNovember 2026

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Downstream Oil and Gas market size and forecast, 2026-2036

Exhibit 1The global downstream oil and gas market is forecast to grow from USD 2.6 tn in 2026 to USD 3.0 tn by 2036, a rise of 16%Global market value in USD: 2025 base year, 2026 estimate and forecast to 2036. CAGR 2026 to 2036: 1.5%
Downstream Oil and Gas market value, 2025 to 2036Market value by year. 2025: USD 2,600 bn; 2026: USD 2,626 bn; 2027: USD 2,665 bn; 2028: USD 2,705 bn; 2029: USD 2,746 bn; 2030: USD 2,787 bn; 2031: USD 2,829 bn; 2032: USD 2,871 bn; 2033: USD 2,914 bn; 2034: USD 2,958 bn; 2035: USD 3,003 bn; 2036: USD 3,048 bn. Compound annual growth rate 2026 to 2036: 1.5%.20252,626 bn20262,829 bn20313,048 bn20361.5% CAGR

Source: Compare Market Research analysis.
© 2026 Compare Market Research. All rights reserved.

YearMarket value
2026USD 2,626 bn
2027USD 2,665 bn
2028USD 2,705 bn
2029USD 2,746 bn
2030USD 2,787 bn
2031USD 2,829 bn
2032USD 2,871 bn
2033USD 2,914 bn
2034USD 2,958 bn
2035USD 3,003 bn
2036USD 3,048 bn

Downstream Oil and Gas market segmentation

By product

Exhibit 2Diesel and gasoil is the largest segment by product, with 36.0% of 2026 revenueEstimated share of 2026 global revenue, by product
Downstream Oil and Gas market share by product, 2026Share of 2026 revenue by product. Diesel and gasoil: 36.0%; Gasoline and naphtha: 34.0%; LPG and other products: 12.0%; Jet fuel and kerosene: 10.0%; Fuel oil and bunker: 8.0%.Diesel and gasoil36.0%Gasoline and naphtha34.0%LPG and other products12.0%Jet fuel and kerosene10.0%Fuel oil and bunker8.0%

Source: Compare Market Research analysis.
© 2026 Compare Market Research. All rights reserved.

SegmentShare 2026Share 2036Value 2026CAGR 2026-36
Gasoline and naphtha34.0%32.5%USD 893 bn1.1%
Diesel and gasoil36.0%35.8%USD 945 bn1.5%
Jet fuel and kerosene10.0%11.9%USD 263 bn3.3%
Fuel oil and bunker8.0%7.4%USD 210 bn0.8%
LPG and other products12.0%12.3%USD 315 bn1.8%

By region of supply

Exhibit 3Asia Pacific adds the most revenue by region of supply, growing from USD 945 bn in 2026 to USD 1.2 tn by 2036Estimated revenue in USD by region of supply, 2026 and 2036 forecast
Downstream Oil and Gas market by region of supply, 2026 and 2036Revenue by region of supply in 2026 and 2036. Asia Pacific: USD 945 bn in 2026, USD 1.2 tn in 2036, change +23%; North America: USD 630 bn in 2026, USD 677 bn in 2036, change +7%; Europe: USD 394 bn in 2026, USD 411 bn in 2036, change +4%; Middle East: USD 315 bn in 2026, USD 400 bn in 2036, change +27%; Rest of world: USD 341 bn in 2026, USD 393 bn in 2036, change +15%.20262036 forecastChangeAsia Pacific+23%945 bn1.2 tnNorth America+7%630 bn677 bnEurope+4%394 bn411 bnMiddle East+27%315 bn400 bnRest of world+15%341 bn393 bn

Source: Compare Market Research analysis.
© 2026 Compare Market Research. All rights reserved.

SegmentShare 2026Share 2036Value 2026CAGR 2026-36
Asia Pacific36.0%38.3%USD 945 bn2.1%
North America24.0%22.2%USD 630 bn0.7%
Europe15.0%13.5%USD 394 bn0.4%
Middle East12.0%13.1%USD 315 bn2.4%
Rest of world13.0%12.9%USD 341 bn1.4%

By refinery complexity

SegmentShare 2026Share 2036Value 2026CAGR 2026-36
Hydroskimming and topping14.0%10.0%USD 368 bn-1.9%
Cracking refineries38.0%35.0%USD 998 bn0.7%
Deep conversion and coking48.0%55.0%USD 1.3 tn2.9%

By sales channel

SegmentShare 2026Share 2036Value 2026CAGR 2026-36
Retail stations33.0%31.0%USD 867 bn0.9%
Commercial and industrial40.0%40.0%USD 1.1 tn1.5%
Wholesale and export27.0%29.0%USD 709 bn2.2%

By ownership

SegmentShare 2026Share 2036Value 2026CAGR 2026-36
National oil companies44.0%46.0%USD 1.2 tn1.9%
Integrated majors30.0%26.0%USD 788 bn0.06%
Independent refiners and marketers26.0%28.0%USD 683 bn2.2%

Top 25 countries for downstream oil and gas by revenue

Countries are ranked by revenue earned from sales in the country, not by where the product is made. The ten largest hold 65.4% of 2026 revenue and the 25 countries below together hold 89.6%.

Exhibit 4United States is the largest country market at USD 525 bn in 2026, and the three largest countries hold 44.0% of global revenueEstimated 2026 revenue in USD and share of the global market, ten largest countries
Downstream Oil and Gas market, ten largest countries in 2026Ten largest countries by 2026 revenue. United States: USD 525 bn, 20.0%; China: USD 446 bn, 17.0%; India: USD 184 bn, 7.0%; Japan: USD 91.9 bn, 3.5%; Brazil: USD 91.9 bn, 3.5%; Russia: USD 78.8 bn, 3.0%; Germany: USD 78.8 bn, 3.0%; Saudi Arabia: USD 78.8 bn, 3.0%; South Korea: USD 73.5 bn, 2.8%; Canada: USD 68.3 bn, 2.6%.United States525 bn 20.0%China446 bn 17.0%India184 bn 7.0%Japan91.9 bn 3.5%Brazil91.9 bn 3.5%Russia78.8 bn 3.0%Germany78.8 bn 3.0%Saudi Arabia78.8 bn 3.0%South Korea73.5 bn 2.8%Canada68.3 bn 2.6%

Source: Compare Market Research analysis.
© 2026 Compare Market Research. All rights reserved.

#CountryValue 2026Share 2026Value 2036CAGR 2026-36
1United StatesUSD 525 bn20.0%USD 567 bn0.8%
2ChinaUSD 446 bn17.0%USD 542 bn2.0%
3IndiaUSD 184 bn7.0%USD 271 bn4.0%
4JapanUSD 91.9 bn3.5%USD 97.5 bn0.6%
5BrazilUSD 91.9 bn3.5%USD 107 bn1.5%
6RussiaUSD 78.8 bn3.0%USD 82.3 bn0.4%
7GermanyUSD 78.8 bn3.0%USD 82.3 bn0.4%
8Saudi ArabiaUSD 78.8 bn3.0%USD 94.5 bn1.8%
9South KoreaUSD 73.5 bn2.8%USD 76.2 bn0.4%
10CanadaUSD 68.3 bn2.6%USD 73.1 bn0.7%
11MexicoUSD 66.2 bn2.5%USD 75.9 bn1.4%
12IndonesiaUSD 66.2 bn2.5%USD 94.8 bn3.7%
13ItalyUSD 60.9 bn2.3%USD 59.4 bn-0.2%
14FranceUSD 55.9 bn2.1%USD 54.6 bn-0.2%
15United KingdomUSD 51.5 bn2.0%USD 50.3 bn-0.2%
16SingaporeUSD 47.5 bn1.8%USD 54.6 bn1.4%
17IranUSD 43.6 bn1.7%USD 50.0 bn1.4%
18ThailandUSD 40.2 bn1.5%USD 46.0 bn1.4%
19SpainUSD 37.0 bn1.4%USD 42.4 bn1.4%
20TurkeyUSD 33.9 bn1.3%USD 48.8 bn3.7%
21NetherlandsUSD 31.2 bn1.2%USD 36.0 bn1.4%
22TaiwanUSD 28.6 bn1.1%USD 32.9 bn1.4%
23United Arab EmiratesUSD 26.5 bn1.0%USD 30.5 bn1.4%
24AustraliaUSD 24.4 bn0.9%USD 28.0 bn1.4%
25EgyptUSD 22.3 bn0.8%USD 32.0 bn3.7%
Rest of worldUSD 273 bn10.4%USD 318 bn1.6%
Exhibit 5China and India account for 44% of the USD 422 bn the market is forecast to add by 2036Forecast revenue added between 2026 and 2036 by country, in USD
Downstream Oil and Gas market, where the growth to 2036 comes fromRevenue added between 2026 and 2036. Market value 2026: USD 2.6 tn. China: +USD 96.0 bn; India: +USD 87.4 bn; United States: +USD 41.6 bn; Indonesia: +USD 28.6 bn; Saudi Arabia: +USD 15.7 bn; 20 other countries: +USD 106 bn; Rest of world: +USD 45.9 bn. Market value 2036: USD 3.0 tn.China+96.0 bnIndia+87.4 bnUnited States+41.6 bnIndonesia+28.6 bnSaudi Arabia+15.7 bn20 other countries+106 bnRest of world+45.9 bn

Source: Compare Market Research analysis.
© 2026 Compare Market Research. All rights reserved.

Competitive landscape

Group 1: Global leaders

  • Sinopec
  • PetroChina
  • Shell
  • ExxonMobil
  • Valero Energy
  • Reliance Industries
  • TotalEnergies
  • BP
  • Chevron

Group 2: Regional and specialist players

  • Marathon Petroleum
  • Phillips 66
  • Indian Oil
  • Eni
  • Repsol
  • Saudi Aramco
  • Petrobras
  • ENEOS
  • SK Innovation
  • Lukoil

Group 3: Emerging and niche players

  • Par Pacific
  • Delek US
  • CVR Energy
  • HF Sinclair
  • Calumet
  • Motiva Enterprises
  • Helleniq Energy
  • Motor Oil Hellas

Research methodology

Every figure on this page comes from the research framework that we apply to all of the markets we cover. The 2025 base for the downstream oil and gas market is built from the volume sold and the price that buyers pay, and is cross-checked against the size of the wider industry the market belongs to. Where a market can be sized in more than one way, the routes are compared before a figure is set.

The forecast runs year by year from the 2025 base to 2036. Growth in each year reflects demand from the industries that buy the product, adoption of new technology, pricing, regulation and replacement cycles. Volume and price are modelled together, so revenue in each year equals volume multiplied by average price. The 2026 to 2036 compound annual growth rate of 1.5% is calculated from the resulting values.

The market is divided by product, by region of supply, by refinery complexity, by sales channel, by ownership. The 25 largest countries are ranked by revenue earned from sales to buyers in each country, not by where the product is made. Segment values and country values add up to the market total in every year, and every report is checked for consistency before it is published.

Companies are placed in three groups: global leaders, regional and specialist players, and emerging and niche players. The groups describe how companies compete in the market. They are not a ranking and they are not market shares.

Our analysts also carry out primary research. Customized reports add interviews with key opinion leaders, such as senior executives, technical specialists and buyers, to test the assumptions behind the numbers for the question being asked.

Read the full research methodology

Frequently asked questions

How big is the downstream oil and gas market?

The global downstream oil and gas market is estimated at USD 2.6 tn in 2025 and USD 2.6 tn in 2026.

How fast will the downstream oil and gas market grow?

It is forecast to reach USD 3.0 tn by 2036, a compound annual growth rate of 1.5% from 2026, an increase of USD 422 bn.

Which country is the largest market for downstream oil and gas?

United States is the largest market by revenue at USD 525 bn in 2026, 20.0% of the global total. The three largest countries together hold 44.0%.

Which country is growing fastest?

Among the ten largest markets, India is growing fastest at 4.0% a year from 2026 to 2036.

Which downstream oil and gas segment is largest?

In the by product split, Diesel and gasoil is the largest segment with 36.0% of 2026 revenue.

Who are the leading downstream oil and gas companies?

Global leaders include Sinopec, PetroChina, Shell, ExxonMobil.

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