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Transplant Biomarker Risk Stratification Market Size, Share and Forecast 2026-2036

The global transplant biomarker risk stratification market is worth USD 616 mn in 2026 and is forecast to reach USD 1.4 bn by 2036, growing at a 8.5% CAGR. United States is the largest country market and Donor-derived cell-free DNA is the largest by assay segment.

USD 616 mnMarket size 2026
USD 1.4 bnForecast 2036
8.5%CAGR 2026-2036
United StatesLargest country

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5 segmentation views25 countries2026 to 2036 yearly forecast

Market overview

The global transplant biomarker risk stratification market is worth USD 616 mn in 2026 and is forecast to reach USD 1.4 bn by 2036, growing at a 8.5% CAGR. United States is the largest country market and Donor-derived cell-free DNA is the largest by assay segment.

ScopeBlood and urine tests that detect rejection and injury in transplanted organs by measuring donor-derived cell-free DNA, gene expression and other biomarkers, sold as laboratory services.
IndustryHealthcare
Value 2025USD 560 mn
Value 2026USD 616 mn
Value 2036USD 1.4 bn
CAGR 2026-20368.5%
Volume 2026495,000 tests
Volume 20361,119,187 tests
Average price 2026USD 1,244 per test
Report priceStarts from USD 1,999
PublishedNovember 2026

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Transplant Biomarker Risk Stratification market size and forecast, 2026-2036

Exhibit 1The global transplant biomarker risk stratification market is forecast to grow from USD 616 mn in 2026 to USD 1.4 bn by 2036, more than doublingGlobal market value in USD: 2025 base year, 2026 estimate and forecast to 2036. CAGR 2026 to 2036: 8.5%
Transplant Biomarker Risk Stratification market value, 2025 to 2036Market value by year. 2025: USD 560 mn; 2026: USD 616 mn; 2027: USD 668 mn; 2028: USD 725 mn; 2029: USD 787 mn; 2030: USD 854 mn; 2031: USD 926 mn; 2032: USD 1.0 bn; 2033: USD 1.1 bn; 2034: USD 1.2 bn; 2035: USD 1.3 bn; 2036: USD 1.4 bn. Compound annual growth rate 2026 to 2036: 8.5%.2025616 mn2026926 mn20311.4 bn20368.5% CAGR

Source: Compare Market Research analysis.
© 2026 Compare Market Research. All rights reserved.

YearMarket value
2026USD 616 mn
2027USD 668 mn
2028USD 725 mn
2029USD 787 mn
2030USD 854 mn
2031USD 926 mn
2032USD 1.0 bn
2033USD 1.1 bn
2034USD 1.2 bn
2035USD 1.3 bn
2036USD 1.4 bn

Transplant Biomarker Risk Stratification market segmentation

By assay

Exhibit 2Donor-derived cell-free DNA is the largest segment by assay, with 62.0% of 2026 revenueEstimated share of 2026 global revenue, by assay
Transplant Biomarker Risk Stratification market share by assay, 2026Share of 2026 revenue by assay. Donor-derived cell-free DNA: 62.0%; Gene expression profiling: 20.0%; Other biomarker assays: 18.0%.Donor-derived cell-free DNA62.0%Gene expression profiling20.0%Other biomarker assays18.0%

Source: Compare Market Research analysis.
© 2026 Compare Market Research. All rights reserved.

SegmentShare 2026Share 2036Value 2026CAGR 2026-36
Donor-derived cell-free DNA62.0%69.3%USD 382 mn9.7%
Gene expression profiling20.0%15.4%USD 123 mn5.7%
Other biomarker assays18.0%15.3%USD 111 mn6.7%

By organ

Exhibit 3Kidney adds the most revenue by organ, growing from USD 382 mn in 2026 to USD 878 mn by 2036Estimated revenue in USD by organ, 2026 and 2036 forecast
Transplant Biomarker Risk Stratification market by organ, 2026 and 2036Revenue by organ in 2026 and 2036. Kidney: USD 382 mn in 2026, USD 878 mn in 2036, change +130%; Liver, lung and other: USD 111 mn in 2026, USD 279 mn in 2036, change +152%; Heart: USD 123 mn in 2026, USD 235 mn in 2036, change +91%.20262036 forecastChangeKidney+130%382 mn878 mnLiver, lung and other+152%111 mn279 mnHeart+91%123 mn235 mn

Source: Compare Market Research analysis.
© 2026 Compare Market Research. All rights reserved.

SegmentShare 2026Share 2036Value 2026CAGR 2026-36
Kidney62.0%63.0%USD 382 mn8.7%
Heart20.0%16.9%USD 123 mn6.7%
Liver, lung and other18.0%20.1%USD 111 mn9.7%

By use

SegmentShare 2026Share 2036Value 2026CAGR 2026-36
Rejection monitoring48.0%44.0%USD 296 mn7.6%
Immunosuppression guidance30.0%30.0%USD 185 mn8.5%
Infection risk22.0%26.0%USD 136 mn10.3%

By platform

SegmentShare 2026Share 2036Value 2026CAGR 2026-36
NGS and digital PCR44.0%52.0%USD 271 mn10.3%
PCR and microarray34.0%28.0%USD 209 mn6.4%
Immunoassay and others22.0%20.0%USD 136 mn7.5%

By lab

SegmentShare 2026Share 2036Value 2026CAGR 2026-36
Reference labs56.0%54.0%USD 345 mn8.1%
Hospital labs32.0%32.0%USD 197 mn8.5%
Transplant centres12.0%14.0%USD 74 mn10.2%

Top 25 countries for transplant biomarker risk stratification by revenue

Countries are ranked by revenue earned from sales in the country, not by where the product is made. The ten largest hold 98.5% of 2026 revenue and the 25 countries below together hold 99.4%.

Exhibit 4United States is the largest country market at USD 493 mn in 2026, and the three largest countries hold 87.0% of global revenueEstimated 2026 revenue in USD and share of the global market, ten largest countries
Transplant Biomarker Risk Stratification market, ten largest countries in 2026Ten largest countries by 2026 revenue. United States: USD 493 mn, 80.0%; Germany: USD 25 mn, 4.0%; United Kingdom: USD 18 mn, 3.0%; France: USD 15 mn, 2.5%; Italy: USD 12 mn, 2.0%; Spain: USD 12 mn, 2.0%; Japan: USD 9.2 mn, 1.5%; Canada: USD 9.2 mn, 1.5%; Australia: USD 6.2 mn, 1.0%; Netherlands: USD 6.2 mn, 1.0%.United States493 mn 80.0%Germany25 mn 4.0%United Kingdom18 mn 3.0%France15 mn 2.5%Italy12 mn 2.0%Spain12 mn 2.0%Japan9.2 mn 1.5%Canada9.2 mn 1.5%Australia6.2 mn 1.0%Netherlands6.2 mn 1.0%

Source: Compare Market Research analysis.
© 2026 Compare Market Research. All rights reserved.

#CountryValue 2026Share 2026Value 2036CAGR 2026-36
1United StatesUSD 493 mn80.0%USD 1.1 bn8.4%
2GermanyUSD 25 mn4.0%USD 58 mn9.0%
3United KingdomUSD 18 mn3.0%USD 43 mn8.9%
4FranceUSD 15 mn2.5%USD 36 mn8.9%
5ItalyUSD 12 mn2.0%USD 29 mn9.0%
6SpainUSD 12 mn2.0%USD 29 mn9.0%
7JapanUSD 9.2 mn1.5%USD 22 mn9.2%
8CanadaUSD 9.2 mn1.5%USD 22 mn9.2%
9AustraliaUSD 6.2 mn1.0%USD 14 mn8.5%
10NetherlandsUSD 6.2 mn1.0%USD 14 mn8.5%
11SwitzerlandUSD 1.2 mn0.2%USD 2.6 mn7.9%
12AustriaUSD 0.74 mn0.1%USD 1.5 mn7.6%
13BelgiumUSD 0.55 mn0.09%USD 1.1 mn7.2%
14SwedenUSD 0.43 mn0.07%USD 0.97 mn8.5%
15DenmarkUSD 0.37 mn0.06%USD 0.84 mn8.5%
16South KoreaUSD 0.31 mn0.05%USD 0.70 mn8.5%
17IsraelUSD 0.31 mn0.05%USD 0.84 mn10.5%
18BrazilUSD 0.25 mn0.04%USD 0.84 mn13.0%
19PolandUSD 0.25 mn0.04%USD 0.70 mn10.9%
20MexicoUSD 0.25 mn0.04%USD 0.70 mn10.9%
21TaiwanUSD 0.18 mn0.03%USD 0.42 mn8.5%
22NorwayUSD 0.18 mn0.03%USD 0.42 mn8.5%
23IndiaUSD 0.18 mn0.03%USD 0.56 mn11.7%
24SingaporeUSD 0.18 mn0.03%USD 0.56 mn11.7%
25TurkeyUSD 0.18 mn0.03%USD 0.42 mn8.5%
Rest of worldUSD 3.6 mn0.6%USD 6.3 mn5.6%
Exhibit 5United States and Germany account for 83% of the USD 777 mn the market is forecast to add by 2036Forecast revenue added between 2026 and 2036 by country, in USD
Transplant Biomarker Risk Stratification market, where the growth to 2036 comes fromRevenue added between 2026 and 2036. Market value 2026: USD 616 mn. United States: +USD 612 mn; Germany: +USD 34 mn; United Kingdom: +USD 25 mn; France: +USD 21 mn; Italy: +USD 17 mn; 20 other countries: +USD 66 mn; Rest of world: +USD 2.6 mn. Market value 2036: USD 1.4 bn.Market value 2026616 mnUnited States+612 mnGermany+34 mnUnited Kingdom+25 mnFrance+21 mnItaly+17 mn20 other countries+66 mnRest of world+2.6 mnMarket value 20361.4 bn

Source: Compare Market Research analysis.
© 2026 Compare Market Research. All rights reserved.

Competitive landscape

Group 1: Global leaders

  • CareDx
  • Natera

Group 2: Regional and specialist players

  • Eurofins Viracor
  • Oncocyte

Group 3: Emerging and niche players

  • Verici Dx
  • Quest Diagnostics

Research methodology

Every figure on this page comes from the research framework that we apply to all of the markets we cover. The 2025 base for the transplant biomarker risk stratification market is built from the volume sold and the price that buyers pay, and is cross-checked against the size of the wider industry the market belongs to. Where a market can be sized in more than one way, the routes are compared before a figure is set.

The forecast runs year by year from the 2025 base to 2036. Growth in each year reflects demand from the industries that buy the product, adoption of new technology, pricing, regulation and replacement cycles. Volume and price are modelled together, so revenue in each year equals volume multiplied by average price. The 2026 to 2036 compound annual growth rate of 8.5% is calculated from the resulting values.

The market is divided by assay, by organ, by use, by platform, by lab. The 25 largest countries are ranked by revenue earned from sales to buyers in each country, not by where the product is made. Segment values and country values add up to the market total in every year, and every report is checked for consistency before it is published.

Companies are placed in three groups: global leaders, regional and specialist players, and emerging and niche players. The groups describe how companies compete in the market. They are not a ranking and they are not market shares.

Our analysts also carry out primary research. Customized reports add interviews with key opinion leaders, such as senior executives, technical specialists and buyers, to test the assumptions behind the numbers for the question being asked.

Read the full research methodology

Frequently asked questions

How big is the transplant biomarker risk stratification market?

The global transplant biomarker risk stratification market is estimated at USD 560 mn in 2025 and USD 616 mn in 2026.

How fast will the transplant biomarker risk stratification market grow?

It is forecast to reach USD 1.4 bn by 2036, a compound annual growth rate of 8.5% from 2026, an increase of USD 777 mn.

Which country is the largest market for transplant biomarker risk stratification?

United States is the largest market by revenue at USD 493 mn in 2026, 80.0% of the global total. The three largest countries together hold 87.0%.

Which country is growing fastest?

Among the ten largest markets, Japan is growing fastest at 9.2% a year from 2026 to 2036.

Which transplant biomarker risk stratification segment is largest?

In the by assay split, Donor-derived cell-free DNA is the largest segment with 62.0% of 2026 revenue.

Who are the leading transplant biomarker risk stratification companies?

Global leaders include CareDx, Natera.

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