Market overview
The global cell-free DNA testing transplant market is worth USD 462 mn in 2026 and is forecast to reach USD 1.2 bn by 2036, growing at a 10.0% CAGR. United States is the largest country market and Kidney is the largest by organ segment.
| Scope | Blood tests that measure donor-derived cell-free DNA to detect rejection of transplanted kidneys, hearts, lungs and livers, sold as laboratory-developed or cleared services to transplant centres. |
|---|---|
| Industry | Healthcare |
| Value 2025 | USD 420 mn |
| Value 2026 | USD 462 mn |
| Value 2036 | USD 1.2 bn |
| CAGR 2026-2036 | 10.0% |
| Volume 2026 | 367 thousand tests |
| Volume 2036 | 1,052 thousand tests |
| Average price 2026 | USD 1,260 per test |
| Report price | Starts from USD 1,999 |
| Published | November 2026 |
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Cell-Free DNA Testing Transplant market size and forecast, 2026-2036
Source: Compare Market Research analysis.
© 2026 Compare Market Research. All rights reserved.
| Year | Market value |
|---|---|
| 2026 | USD 462 mn |
| 2027 | USD 508 mn |
| 2028 | USD 559 mn |
| 2029 | USD 615 mn |
| 2030 | USD 676 mn |
| 2031 | USD 744 mn |
| 2032 | USD 818 mn |
| 2033 | USD 900 mn |
| 2034 | USD 990 mn |
| 2035 | USD 1.1 bn |
| 2036 | USD 1.2 bn |
Cell-Free DNA Testing Transplant market segmentation
By organ
Source: Compare Market Research analysis.
© 2026 Compare Market Research. All rights reserved.
| Segment | Share 2026 | Share 2036 | Value 2026 | CAGR 2026-36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kidney | 66.0% | 58.6% | USD 305 mn | 8.7% |
| Heart | 17.0% | 19.8% | USD 79 mn | 11.7% |
| Lung | 9.0% | 11.5% | USD 42 mn | 12.7% |
| Liver and other | 8.0% | 10.2% | USD 37 mn | 12.7% |
By testing purpose
Source: Compare Market Research analysis.
© 2026 Compare Market Research. All rights reserved.
| Segment | Share 2026 | Share 2036 | Value 2026 | CAGR 2026-36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Surveillance monitoring | 58.0% | 60.7% | USD 268 mn | 10.5% |
| For-cause testing | 30.0% | 26.2% | USD 139 mn | 8.5% |
| Clinical trials and research | 12.0% | 13.1% | USD 55 mn | 11.0% |
By technology
| Segment | Share 2026 | Share 2036 | Value 2026 | CAGR 2026-36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next-generation sequencing | 48.0% | 50.0% | USD 222 mn | 10.4% |
| Digital PCR | 30.0% | 30.0% | USD 139 mn | 10.0% |
| Targeted panels | 22.0% | 20.0% | USD 102 mn | 9.0% |
By biomarker
| Segment | Share 2026 | Share 2036 | Value 2026 | CAGR 2026-36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donor-derived cell-free DNA | 72.0% | 66.0% | USD 333 mn | 9.1% |
| Methylation markers | 14.0% | 18.0% | USD 65 mn | 12.8% |
| Other markers | 14.0% | 16.0% | USD 65 mn | 11.5% |
By buyer
| Segment | Share 2026 | Share 2036 | Value 2026 | CAGR 2026-36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transplant centers | 58.0% | 54.0% | USD 268 mn | 9.2% |
| Reference labs | 30.0% | 32.0% | USD 139 mn | 10.7% |
| Research institutes | 12.0% | 14.0% | USD 55 mn | 11.7% |
Top 25 countries for cell-free DNA testing transplant by revenue
Countries are ranked by revenue earned from sales in the country, not by where the product is made. The ten largest hold 98.0% of 2026 revenue and the 25 countries below together hold 99.6%.
Source: Compare Market Research analysis.
© 2026 Compare Market Research. All rights reserved.
| # | Country | Value 2026 | Share 2026 | Value 2036 | CAGR 2026-36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | United States | USD 360 mn | 78.0% | USD 947 mn | 10.1% |
| 2 | Germany | USD 18 mn | 4.0% | USD 44 mn | 9.2% |
| 3 | United Kingdom | USD 14 mn | 3.0% | USD 35 mn | 9.6% |
| 4 | France | USD 14 mn | 3.0% | USD 34 mn | 9.2% |
| 5 | Australia | USD 9.2 mn | 2.0% | USD 24 mn | 10.0% |
| 6 | Canada | USD 9.2 mn | 2.0% | USD 23 mn | 9.4% |
| 7 | Japan | USD 9.2 mn | 2.0% | USD 22 mn | 8.8% |
| 8 | Spain | USD 6.9 mn | 1.5% | USD 17 mn | 9.2% |
| 9 | Italy | USD 6.9 mn | 1.5% | USD 16 mn | 8.4% |
| 10 | Brazil | USD 4.6 mn | 1.0% | USD 13 mn | 11.1% |
| 11 | Netherlands | USD 1.1 mn | 0.2% | USD 2.6 mn | 9.5% |
| 12 | Switzerland | USD 0.83 mn | 0.2% | USD 2.2 mn | 10.0% |
| 13 | Sweden | USD 0.74 mn | 0.2% | USD 1.9 mn | 10.0% |
| 14 | Belgium | USD 0.74 mn | 0.2% | USD 1.8 mn | 9.3% |
| 15 | Austria | USD 0.60 mn | 0.1% | USD 1.6 mn | 10.0% |
| 16 | Taiwan | USD 0.55 mn | 0.1% | USD 1.7 mn | 11.7% |
| 17 | Denmark | USD 0.55 mn | 0.1% | USD 1.3 mn | 9.1% |
| 18 | Poland | USD 0.42 mn | 0.09% | USD 1.1 mn | 10.0% |
| 19 | Israel | USD 0.37 mn | 0.08% | USD 0.96 mn | 10.0% |
| 20 | Singapore | USD 0.37 mn | 0.08% | USD 0.96 mn | 10.0% |
| 21 | South Korea | USD 0.28 mn | 0.06% | USD 0.72 mn | 10.0% |
| 22 | China | USD 0.23 mn | 0.05% | USD 0.48 mn | 7.6% |
| 23 | Mexico | USD 0.18 mn | 0.04% | USD 0.48 mn | 10.0% |
| 24 | Turkey | USD 0.18 mn | 0.04% | USD 0.48 mn | 10.0% |
| 25 | Saudi Arabia | USD 0.18 mn | 0.04% | USD 0.48 mn | 10.0% |
| Rest of world | USD 1.9 mn | 0.4% | USD 6.5 mn | 12.8% |
Source: Compare Market Research analysis.
© 2026 Compare Market Research. All rights reserved.
Competitive landscape
Group 1: Global leaders
- CareDx
- Natera
Group 2: Regional and specialist players
- Eurofins Viracor
- Thermo Fisher Scientific
- Chronix Biomedical
Group 3: Emerging and niche players
- Oncocyte
- Verici Dx
Research methodology
Every figure on this page comes from the research framework that we apply to all of the markets we cover. The 2025 base for the cell-free DNA testing transplant market is built from the volume sold and the price that buyers pay, and is cross-checked against the size of the wider industry the market belongs to. Where a market can be sized in more than one way, the routes are compared before a figure is set.
The forecast runs year by year from the 2025 base to 2036. Growth in each year reflects demand from the industries that buy the product, adoption of new technology, pricing, regulation and replacement cycles. Volume and price are modelled together, so revenue in each year equals volume multiplied by average price. The 2026 to 2036 compound annual growth rate of 10.0% is calculated from the resulting values.
The market is divided by organ, by testing purpose, by technology, by biomarker, by buyer. The 25 largest countries are ranked by revenue earned from sales to buyers in each country, not by where the product is made. Segment values and country values add up to the market total in every year, and every report is checked for consistency before it is published.
Companies are placed in three groups: global leaders, regional and specialist players, and emerging and niche players. The groups describe how companies compete in the market. They are not a ranking and they are not market shares.
Our analysts also carry out primary research. Customized reports add interviews with key opinion leaders, such as senior executives, technical specialists and buyers, to test the assumptions behind the numbers for the question being asked.
Frequently asked questions
How big is the cell-free DNA testing transplant market?
The global cell-free DNA testing transplant market is estimated at USD 420 mn in 2025 and USD 462 mn in 2026.
How fast will the cell-free DNA testing transplant market grow?
It is forecast to reach USD 1.2 bn by 2036, a compound annual growth rate of 10.0% from 2026, an increase of USD 736 mn.
Which country is the largest market for cell-free DNA testing transplant?
United States is the largest market by revenue at USD 360 mn in 2026, 78.0% of the global total. The three largest countries together hold 85.0%.
Which country is growing fastest?
Among the ten largest markets, Brazil is growing fastest at 11.1% a year from 2026 to 2036.
Which cell-free DNA testing transplant segment is largest?
In the by organ split, Kidney is the largest segment with 66.0% of 2026 revenue.
Who are the leading cell-free DNA testing transplant companies?
Global leaders include CareDx, Natera.
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