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Carbon Credit Market Size, Share and Forecast 2026-2036

The global carbon credit market is worth USD 178 bn in 2026 and is forecast to reach USD 422 bn by 2036, growing at a 9.0% CAGR. China is the largest country market and Compliance allowances is the largest by market segment.

USD 178 bnMarket size 2026
USD 422 bnForecast 2036
9.0%CAGR 2026-2036
ChinaLargest country

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5 segmentation views25 countries2026 to 2036 yearly forecast

Market overview

The global carbon credit market is worth USD 178 bn in 2026 and is forecast to reach USD 422 bn by 2036, growing at a 9.0% CAGR. China is the largest country market and Compliance allowances is the largest by market segment.

ScopeValue of carbon allowances and credits retired by companies and governments in compliance emissions trading systems and voluntary offset markets.
IndustryServices and Utilities
Value 2025USD 165 bn
Value 2026USD 178 bn
Value 2036USD 422 bn
CAGR 2026-20369.0%
Volume 20268,388 million tonnes of CO2e
Volume 203614,776 million tonnes of CO2e
Average price 2026USD 21.2 per tonnes of CO2e
Report priceStarts from USD 1,999
PublishedNovember 2026

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Carbon Credit market size and forecast, 2026-2036

Exhibit 1The global carbon credit market is forecast to grow from USD 178 bn in 2026 to USD 422 bn by 2036, more than doublingGlobal market value in USD: 2025 base year, 2026 estimate and forecast to 2036. CAGR 2026 to 2036: 9.0%
Carbon Credit market value, 2025 to 2036Market value by year. 2025: USD 165 bn; 2026: USD 178 bn; 2027: USD 194 bn; 2028: USD 212 bn; 2029: USD 231 bn; 2030: USD 252 bn; 2031: USD 274 bn; 2032: USD 299 bn; 2033: USD 326 bn; 2034: USD 355 bn; 2035: USD 387 bn; 2036: USD 422 bn. Compound annual growth rate 2026 to 2036: 9.0%.2025178 bn2026274 bn2031422 bn20369.0% CAGR

Source: Compare Market Research analysis.
© 2026 Compare Market Research. All rights reserved.

YearMarket value
2026USD 178 bn
2027USD 194 bn
2028USD 212 bn
2029USD 231 bn
2030USD 252 bn
2031USD 274 bn
2032USD 299 bn
2033USD 326 bn
2034USD 355 bn
2035USD 387 bn
2036USD 422 bn

Carbon Credit market segmentation

By market

Exhibit 2Compliance allowances is the largest segment by market, with 90.0% of 2026 revenueEstimated share of 2026 global revenue, by market
Carbon Credit market share by market, 2026Share of 2026 revenue by market. Compliance allowances: 90.0%; Voluntary credits: 5.0%; Offsets for compliance use: 5.0%.Compliance allowances90.0%Voluntary credits5.0%Offsets for compliance use5.0%

Source: Compare Market Research analysis.
© 2026 Compare Market Research. All rights reserved.

SegmentShare 2026Share 2036Value 2026CAGR 2026-36
Compliance allowances90.0%86.0%USD 160 bn8.5%
Voluntary credits5.0%8.5%USD 8.9 bn15.0%
Offsets for compliance use5.0%5.5%USD 8.9 bn10.0%

By system

Exhibit 3European Union ETS adds the most revenue by system, growing from USD 92.7 bn in 2026 to USD 180 bn by 2036Estimated revenue in USD by system, 2026 and 2036 forecast
Carbon Credit market by system, 2026 and 2036Revenue by system in 2026 and 2036. European Union ETS: USD 92.7 bn in 2026, USD 180 bn in 2036, change +94%; China ETS: USD 42.8 bn in 2026, USD 115 bn in 2036, change +168%; North American systems: USD 24.9 bn in 2026, USD 55.7 bn in 2036, change +123%; Voluntary offset market: USD 8.9 bn in 2026, USD 37.3 bn in 2036, change +318%; Other compliance systems: USD 8.9 bn in 2026, USD 34.2 bn in 2036, change +283%.20262036 forecastChangeEuropean Union ETS+94%92.7 bn180 bnChina ETS+168%42.8 bn115 bnNorth American systems+123%24.9 bn55.7 bnVoluntary offset market+318%8.9 bn37.3 bnOther compliance systems+283%8.9 bn34.2 bn

Source: Compare Market Research analysis.
© 2026 Compare Market Research. All rights reserved.

SegmentShare 2026Share 2036Value 2026CAGR 2026-36
European Union ETS52.0%42.7%USD 92.7 bn6.9%
China ETS24.0%27.2%USD 42.8 bn10.4%
North American systems14.0%13.2%USD 24.9 bn8.4%
Other compliance systems5.0%8.1%USD 8.9 bn14.4%
Voluntary offset market5.0%8.8%USD 8.9 bn15.4%

By credit type

SegmentShare 2026Share 2036Value 2026CAGR 2026-36
Allowances66.0%63.6%USD 118 bn8.6%
Avoidance credits14.0%12.3%USD 24.9 bn7.6%
Removal credits8.0%10.8%USD 14.3 bn12.3%
Nature-based credits12.0%13.3%USD 21.4 bn10.1%

By buyer type

SegmentShare 2026Share 2036Value 2026CAGR 2026-36
Industrial emitters52.0%51.2%USD 92.7 bn8.8%
Power generators31.0%29.1%USD 55.2 bn8.3%
Financial intermediaries10.0%11.3%USD 17.8 bn10.3%
Corporates and individuals7.0%8.4%USD 12.5 bn11.0%

By delivery

SegmentShare 2026Share 2036Value 2026CAGR 2026-36
Spot30.0%29.1%USD 53.5 bn8.7%
Futures50.0%50.0%USD 89.1 bn9.0%
Options and swaps20.0%20.9%USD 35.6 bn9.5%

Top 25 countries for carbon credit by revenue

Countries are ranked by revenue earned from sales in the country, not by where the product is made. The ten largest hold 77.1% of 2026 revenue and the 25 countries below together hold 92.2%.

Exhibit 4China is the largest country market at USD 44.5 bn in 2026, and the three largest countries hold 45.5% of global revenueEstimated 2026 revenue in USD and share of the global market, ten largest countries
Carbon Credit market, ten largest countries in 2026Ten largest countries by 2026 revenue. China: USD 44.5 bn, 25.0%; Germany: USD 20.5 bn, 11.5%; United States: USD 16.0 bn, 9.0%; France: USD 14.5 bn, 8.2%; Italy: USD 10.3 bn, 5.8%; Spain: USD 8.6 bn, 4.8%; United Kingdom: USD 8.0 bn, 4.5%; Netherlands: USD 6.0 bn, 3.4%; South Korea: USD 4.5 bn, 2.5%; Canada: USD 4.5 bn, 2.5%.China44.5 bn 25.0%Germany20.5 bn 11.5%United States16.0 bn 9.0%France14.5 bn 8.2%Italy10.3 bn 5.8%Spain8.6 bn 4.8%United Kingdom8.0 bn 4.5%Netherlands6.0 bn 3.4%South Korea4.5 bn 2.5%Canada4.5 bn 2.5%

Source: Compare Market Research analysis.
© 2026 Compare Market Research. All rights reserved.

#CountryValue 2026Share 2026Value 2036CAGR 2026-36
1ChinaUSD 44.5 bn25.0%USD 121 bn10.5%
2GermanyUSD 20.5 bn11.5%USD 40.2 bn7.0%
3United StatesUSD 16.0 bn9.0%USD 36.3 bn8.5%
4FranceUSD 14.5 bn8.2%USD 28.5 bn7.0%
5ItalyUSD 10.3 bn5.8%USD 20.1 bn6.9%
6SpainUSD 8.6 bn4.8%USD 16.7 bn7.0%
7United KingdomUSD 8.0 bn4.5%USD 17.3 bn8.0%
8NetherlandsUSD 6.0 bn3.4%USD 11.7 bn7.0%
9South KoreaUSD 4.5 bn2.5%USD 11.0 bn9.4%
10CanadaUSD 4.5 bn2.5%USD 11.4 bn9.8%
11PolandUSD 4.3 bn2.4%USD 8.4 bn7.0%
12BelgiumUSD 3.4 bn1.9%USD 6.7 bn7.0%
13SwedenUSD 3.4 bn1.9%USD 6.7 bn7.0%
14JapanUSD 3.2 bn1.8%USD 12.2 bn14.3%
15AustriaUSD 2.6 bn1.4%USD 5.0 bn6.9%
16IrelandUSD 2.6 bn1.4%USD 5.0 bn6.9%
17IndiaUSD 2.3 bn1.3%USD 22.4 bn25.4%
18New ZealandUSD 2.1 bn1.2%USD 4.6 bn8.1%
19SwitzerlandUSD 1.6 bn0.9%USD 3.4 bn7.7%
20NorwayUSD 517 mn0.3%USD 1.2 bn9.0%
21DenmarkUSD 285 mn0.2%USD 675 mn9.0%
22MexicoUSD 178 mn0.1%USD 506 mn11.0%
23SingaporeUSD 160 mn0.09%USD 422 mn10.2%
24Hong KongUSD 107 mn0.06%USD 295 mn10.7%
25United Arab EmiratesUSD 107 mn0.06%USD 253 mn9.0%
Rest of worldUSD 13.9 bn7.8%USD 30.2 bn8.0%
Exhibit 5China and United States account for 40% of the USD 244 bn the market is forecast to add by 2036Forecast revenue added between 2026 and 2036 by country, in USD
Carbon Credit market, where the growth to 2036 comes fromRevenue added between 2026 and 2036. Market value 2026: USD 178 bn. China: +USD 76.1 bn; United States: +USD 20.2 bn; India: +USD 20.0 bn; Germany: +USD 19.7 bn; France: +USD 13.9 bn; 20 other countries: +USD 77.4 bn; Rest of world: +USD 16.3 bn. Market value 2036: USD 422 bn.Market value 2026178 bnChina+76.1 bnUnited States+20.2 bnIndia+20.0 bnGermany+19.7 bnFrance+13.9 bn20 other countries+77.4 bnRest of world+16.3 bnMarket value 2036422 bn

Source: Compare Market Research analysis.
© 2026 Compare Market Research. All rights reserved.

Competitive landscape

Group 1: Global leaders

  • Intercontinental Exchange
  • EEX Group
  • CME Group
  • Verra
  • Gold Standard

Group 2: Regional and specialist players

  • South Pole
  • Climate Impact Partners
  • Xpansiv
  • Shell Energy
  • Shanghai Environment and Energy Exchange
  • American Carbon Registry
  • Climate Action Reserve
  • Korea Exchange
  • Beijing Green Exchange
  • Hubei Carbon Emissions Exchange

Group 3: Emerging and niche players

  • Carbonplace
  • Sylvera
  • Puro.earth
  • Climate Impact X
  • AirCarbon Exchange
  • Toucan Protocol

Research methodology

Every figure on this page comes from the research framework that we apply to all of the markets we cover. The 2025 base for the carbon credit market is built from the volume sold and the price that buyers pay, and is cross-checked against the size of the wider industry the market belongs to. Where a market can be sized in more than one way, the routes are compared before a figure is set.

The forecast runs year by year from the 2025 base to 2036. Growth in each year reflects demand from the industries that buy the product, adoption of new technology, pricing, regulation and replacement cycles. Volume and price are modelled together, so revenue in each year equals volume multiplied by average price. The 2026 to 2036 compound annual growth rate of 9.0% is calculated from the resulting values.

The market is divided by market, by system, by credit type, by buyer type, by delivery. The 25 largest countries are ranked by revenue earned from sales to buyers in each country, not by where the product is made. Segment values and country values add up to the market total in every year, and every report is checked for consistency before it is published.

Companies are placed in three groups: global leaders, regional and specialist players, and emerging and niche players. The groups describe how companies compete in the market. They are not a ranking and they are not market shares.

Our analysts also carry out primary research. Customized reports add interviews with key opinion leaders, such as senior executives, technical specialists and buyers, to test the assumptions behind the numbers for the question being asked.

Read the full research methodology

Frequently asked questions

How big is the carbon credit market?

The global carbon credit market is estimated at USD 165 bn in 2025 and USD 178 bn in 2026.

How fast will the carbon credit market grow?

It is forecast to reach USD 422 bn by 2036, a compound annual growth rate of 9.0% from 2026, an increase of USD 244 bn.

Which country is the largest market for carbon credit?

China is the largest market by revenue at USD 44.5 bn in 2026, 25.0% of the global total. The three largest countries together hold 45.5%.

Which country is growing fastest?

Among the ten largest markets, China is growing fastest at 10.5% a year from 2026 to 2036.

Which carbon credit segment is largest?

In the by market split, Compliance allowances is the largest segment with 90.0% of 2026 revenue.

Who are the leading carbon credit companies?

Global leaders include Intercontinental Exchange, EEX Group, CME Group, Verra.

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